Data as of Aug 18, 2026 · FY26 = year ended Mar 2026Focus: Sunlite (holding) + Hindustan CopperLME cash $14,545/t (Aug 14, squeeze re-intensified)USD/INR 95.73

HCL & Miners

India has exactly one listed pure-play copper ore miner: Hindustan Copper (GoI 66.14%). Everyone else touches copper downstream — Hindalco smelts imported concentrate (inside a diversified aluminium major), Adani's Kutch smelter sits in unlisted subsidiaries, Vedanta's Indian copper business remains the shut Sterlite plant. So the miner lens in India is an HCL lens — and HCL is a fundamentally different machine from every recycler on this board: it owns the ore, so it captures the full copper price, not a conversion spread.

Price (Aug 18)
₹568
+8% on the week — ran into the OFS
Market cap
₹54,944 cr
~$5.7bn; deck cites ₹51,619 cr (5 Aug)
TTM P/E · P/B
48x · 15x
re-rated back UP as price rose
Q1 FY27 PAT
₹352.6 cr
+162% YoY; margin 54.2%
Q1 FY27 rev
₹936.5 cr
+81% YoY; PBT ₹471.8 cr
FY26 PAT
₹921 cr
+97%; div ₹276.6 cr; loans ₹90 cr

Google Finance / screener.in, Aug 18, 2026; Q1 FY27 per the Aug 10 NSE filing; Vision-2030 figures from HCL's corporate presentation dated 18.08.2026 (company targets, not forecasts). ROE/ROCE per screener FY26 (32.9% / 42.4%); MarketsMojo computes lower on TTM-average capital. ICRA AA+ (Stable).

Hindustan Copper

NSE: HINDCOPPER · Kolkata · GoI PSUPure ore miner — concentrate seller₹568 · ₹54,944 cr · 48x
Q1 FY27 PAT
₹352.6 cr
+162% YoY
Q1 FY27 OPM
54.2%
record-tying
FY26 PAT
₹921 cr
+97% YoY
FY26 CFO
₹1,474 cr
160% conversion
Q1 FY27 (reported Aug 10, 2026)

Revenue ₹936.5 cr (+81% YoY, −19% QoQ on the usual Q1 seasonality), EBITDA ₹508 cr, margin 54.2% (ties the Q4 record), PAT ₹352.6 cr (+162% YoY) — roughly double the ₹140–160 cr circulating estimate. No production tonnes disclosed, as usual. The stock did essentially nothing on it (₹526–534): the beat was already owned, which is exactly the tell the study window was watching for. The mechanical effect is that TTM earnings jumped and the multiple fell 56.9x → ~42x without the price moving — though by Aug 18 the stock had run +8% to ₹568 and the multiple was back near 48x.

Take (updated Aug 18): two things moved. The Q1 print proved the operating leverage is real at squeeze prices (54.2% margin, PAT +162%) and mechanically de-rated the stock to ~42x — but the stock then ran +8% to ₹568, so the multiple has re-rated back to ~48x on price, not on fundamentals. The single most important new near-term fact is the Aug-12 government OFS plan (~5% of HCL in FY27, merchant bankers appointed) — the classic PSU rally-cap and, historically, the better entry mechanic. The Aug-18 deck enriches the long-term story (Vision 2030, resource base, value-chain creep) but gives no forward earnings, and its FY30 roadmap is heroic and back-end-loaded. The through-line is unchanged: own the model, not the multiple — and the OFS is the setup to wait for.

FY26 vs FY25

FY25FY26
Ore (Mt)3.473.67
MIC (t)~25,14027,421
Revenue2,0713,078
PAT469921
CFO5441,474

Vision 2030 — from the Aug-18 deck

Ore production roadmap (Million Tonnes)

FY25-26 is actual (blue); FY26-29 are deck plan; FY29-30 is drawn hatched because it is aspirational.

The tell: the first four years are a pedestrian ~17% CAGR (3.67→5.90), then a single-year DOUBLING to 12.20 Mt. You don't add 6+ Mt of underground milling in one year — treat FY27–29 as the plannable window and steeply haircut the FY30 headline. MIC (metal-in-concentrate) scales roughly with ore at ~constant grade, so FY27's 4.71 Mt implies ~35kt MIC vs FY26's 27,421t.

Mine-wise expansion (present → FY30 target, MTPA)

UnitNowFY30Note
Malanjkhand (MCP)2.55.00Underground expansion
Khetri (KCC)1.53.00Paste-fill + new concentrator
Indian Copper Complex (ICC), Ghatsila0.44.20A 10x — most aggressive, least-proven leg; leans on reopening Rakha/Surda/Kendadih
Taloja (TCP)tolling60,000 TPACathode tolling target
Gujarat (GCP)idleQ4 FY27LOI to Lohum Materials, revenue-share; production by Q4 FY27